On September 5 came the new decision on the repo rate. It was then left unchanged at -0.25 percent. The plan since then has been to slowly but surely start raising the interest rate every year until we reach a more normal level. However, it seems that the plan may need to be revised slightly.
Most economists who follow developments in both Sweden and the rest of the world have constantly believed that the Loan and Credit must rethink and stop its plans for increases, precisely because it is such an unsafe and bad situation in the world. There is simply a risk of worse times and raising the interest rate just when these problems start to accumulate will be poor timing.
Can the Loan and Credit still raise interest rates this year?
However, the Loan and Credit said in its latest decision that they still expect to raise interest rates according to plan at the end of the year. This surprised many as it really feels like it is an uncertain situation and given how cautious the Loan and Credit has been in the past, it goes against their own principles.
Unemployment in Sweden has not directly shown any good figures lately and there have been indications that we may be heading into a recession, so there may be worse times ahead. Then you need stimulation, for example in the form of low interest rates. The Loan and Credit says in itself that they will adapt monetary policy to the cyclical trend, but the question is whether they seriously believe that it will be possible to raise interest rates at the end of the year, despite everything that is going on.
What does the interest rate message mean for us with loans?
Basically, this interest rate message does not say very much in itself, but given how the situation looks in Sweden and globally, it certainly seems to be a long time to come with low interest rates. It is unlikely that the Loan and Credit will raise interest rates significantly for many years.
Even if they were to implement an increase in December (which most people now consider less likely), it will not in itself affect the interest rates on, for example, mortgages so much that one has to be worried. In the long term, interest rates will still be low and in most cases it is still good to have a variable interest rate on the mortgage.